Two centuries of marriage and mortality in the United States: Evidence from family histories

This paper estimates the relationship between marital status and mortality using a large sample of family histories from the United States. The data under analysis contain birth, death and marriage dates on a sample of family-linked individuals. Using both linear models of life expectancy and parametric and semi-parametric hazard models, the analysis finds strong and consistent benefits of marriage that are highest in early adulthood, but diminish steadily over the life course. Generally the effects of being single and widowed are similar, and protective effects of marriage exist for both men and women, though they are stronger for men. Sibling-level random effects are incorporated into both the linear models and the parametric hazard model. In general, the random effects have little impact on the coefficient estimates. [Preliminary and incomplete—Please do not quote or cite; comments welcome] 1 Prepared for the meetings of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN, May 1-3, 2003. I acknowledge the research assistance of Crystal Miller. Special thanks to Clayne Pope who collected and generously provided the data for this study. The author receives financial support from the National Institute on Aging.